About
Statball builds baseball models. The models are proprietary; the results are not. Every prediction we make is written down before the game and checked against what actually happened.
The picks are posted before first pitch. The track record scores them against real results and market prices — the losing months are shown alongside the winning ones. The model page reports out-of-sample accuracy and calibration, and where the limits of a baseball model sit.
The Stake is $100 of our own money in a real exchange account, traded automatically on the model’s strong signals. The page reads directly from the exchange, so we can’t edit it.
The rest of the site is the archive the models are built on: 150 years of the game to explore, a research division that publishes what it finds, nulls included, and occasional essays.
Credits & fine print
- Historical game data obtained free of charge from and copyrighted by Retrosheet.
- Live schedules, scores, and game states from the league’s public feed.
- Market prices from the exchanges where they trade.
- Nothing on this site is wagering advice. Bet with money you can lose, or don’t.