The Stake

live account

We trade the model’s published picks with our own capital: $100 in a Kalshi account traded automatically — no human touches an order. Every number on this page is read from the exchange. The working target is $250, and the account is public either way.

$96.17

account value · -3.8% since July 8

$96.17 cash

$0.00 in 0 open positions

50 bets placed · 19–31

$100 · the stake$250 · the target

Fills — as the exchange recorded them

buyNYM to win · Aug 26 × ¢Aug 26

buySF to win · Aug 26 × ¢Aug 26

buyATH to win · Aug 25 × ¢Aug 25

buyLAA to win · Aug 25 × ¢Aug 25

buyDET to win · Aug 25 × ¢Aug 25

buyNYM to win · Aug 25 × ¢Aug 25

buyKC to win · Aug 25 × ¢Aug 25

buySF to win · Aug 24 × ¢Aug 24

buyMIL to win · Aug 23 × ¢Aug 23

buySEA to win · Aug 23 × ¢Aug 23

buyPIT to win · Aug 23 × ¢Aug 23

buyLAA to win · Aug 23 × ¢Aug 23

buyCWS to win · Aug 23 × ¢Aug 23

buySD to win · Aug 22 × ¢Aug 22

buyPIT to win · Aug 22 × ¢Aug 22

buyWSH to win · Aug 22 × ¢Aug 22

buyPIT to win · Aug 21 × ¢Aug 21

buyCOL to win · Aug 21 × ¢Aug 21

buySTL to win · Aug 21 × ¢Aug 21

buyWSH to win · Aug 20 × ¢Aug 20

Settled bets — 19–31 on the season

lostNYM to win · Aug 26−$4.2910 contracts · $4.20 → $0.00 · Aug 26

lostSF to win · Aug 26−$3.236 contracts · $3.18 → $0.00 · Aug 26

lostLAA to win · Aug 25−$2.576 contracts · $2.52 → $0.00 · Aug 26

wonATH to win · Aug 25+$2.294 contracts · $1.68 → $4.00 · Aug 26

wonNYM to win · Aug 25+$4.197 contracts · $2.80 → $7.00 · Aug 25

wonKC to win · Aug 25+$2.715 contracts · $2.25 → $5.00 · Aug 25

wonDET to win · Aug 25+$3.296 contracts · $2.70 → $6.00 · Aug 25

wonSF to win · Aug 24+$4.738 contracts · $3.20 → $8.00 · Aug 25

lostMIL to win · Aug 23−$3.236 contracts · $3.18 → $0.00 · Aug 23

lostSEA to win · Aug 23−$1.914 contracts · $1.88 → $0.00 · Aug 23

lostPIT to win · Aug 23−$2.087 contracts · $2.03 → $0.00 · Aug 23

lostLAA to win · Aug 23−$2.095 contracts · $2.05 → $0.00 · Aug 23

wonCWS to win · Aug 23+$2.896 contracts · $3.06 → $6.00 · Aug 23

wonSD to win · Aug 22+$2.115 contracts · $2.85 → $5.00 · Aug 22

lostPIT to win · Aug 22−$1.786 contracts · $1.74 → $0.00 · Aug 22

lostWSH to win · Aug 22−$2.276 contracts · $2.22 → $0.00 · Aug 22

lostPIT to win · Aug 21−$1.976 contracts · $1.92 → $0.00 · Aug 22

lostCOL to win · Aug 21−$2.516 contracts · $2.46 → $0.00 · Aug 21

lostSTL to win · Aug 21−$3.2711 contracts · $3.19 → $0.00 · Aug 21

lostWSH to win · Aug 20−$3.499 contracts · $3.42 → $0.00 · Aug 20

The strategy on paper, same window

Alongside the cash, the same strategy runs on paper at the recorded pregame prices — the theoretical ceiling with perfect fills and no fees. The gap between the two is the cost of reality: spreads, timing, and thin markets.

$175.70strong edges · 25 paper bets

$169.01all edges · 39 paper bets

How it trades

· Buys every strong pick: any side the model rates 62% or better to win.
· Base stake of 3% per pick; when the model’s price also beats the market’s, quarter-Kelly scales the stake up to a 10% cap. Best-priced picks are funded first.
· Limit orders at the ask, only in the final two hours before first pitch.
· Hard caps: 10% of the account per position, 40% per day. Never bets the same game twice. Stops entirely under $10.
· The model was frozen before the stake was funded; results can’t feed back into it.

The signals it trades are public before every game on Today’s Picks; the model’s full season is scored on the Track Record; the account itself is visible on Kalshi. Updates every minute. Not wagering advice.