The Stake

live account

We trade the model’s published picks with our own capital: $100 in a Kalshi account traded automatically — no human touches an order. Every number on this page is read from the exchange. The working target is $250, and the account is public either way.

$101.10

account value · +1.1% since July 8

$101.10 cash

$0.00 in 0 open positions

1 bet placed · 1–0

$100 · the stake$250 · the target

Fills — as the exchange recorded them

buyLAD to win · Jul 8 × ¢Jul 8

Settled bets — 1–0 on the season

wonLAD to win · Jul 8+$1.104 contracts · $2.84 → $4.00 · Jul 9

The strategy on paper, same window

Alongside the cash, the same strategy runs on paper at the recorded pregame prices — the theoretical ceiling with perfect fills and no fees. The gap between the two is the cost of reality: spreads, timing, and thin markets.

$156.75strong edges · 19 paper bets

$164.79all edges · 29 paper bets

How it trades

· Buys every strong pick: any side the model rates 62% or better to win.
· Base stake of 3% per pick; when the model’s price also beats the market’s, quarter-Kelly scales the stake up to a 10% cap. Best-priced picks are funded first.
· Limit orders at the ask, only in the final two hours before first pitch.
· Hard caps: 10% of the account per position, 40% per day. Never bets the same game twice. Stops entirely under $10.
· The model was frozen before the stake was funded; results can’t feed back into it.

The signals it trades are public before every game on Today’s Picks; the model’s full season is scored on the Track Record; the account itself is visible on Kalshi. Updates every minute. Not wagering advice.