Statball

Today’s Picks

Every upcoming game, priced by a model backtested on 169,939 games it had never seen and rolled forward through all 2,430 games of the 2026 season. The pick, the market’s live contract price, and the edge between them — green means the model rates the pick above what the market charges.

1,348–1,082
2026 record, all picks
55.5%
pick accuracy
347–237 (59%)
strong picks
Track record →
every pick scored · real money on the line

The schedule feed is quiet right now — check back shortly.

Any matchup, any price

Set up a game at current ratings, then enter the moneylines you’re seeing: the vig comes out, the model’s edge appears, and the Kelly stake is computed for you.

Brewers (home)Dodgers
56.4%43.6%

Live 2026 ratings through 2026-09-27 · Elo gap 32 pts, home field included in the fit.

Edge against a price

Enter a moneyline for each side and the model’s probability is compared with the market’s, after the vig is stripped out.

The model prices team strength from results only — it cannot see starting pitchers, injuries, lineups, or weather, all of which sportsbooks price in (Live 2026 ratings through 2026-09-27). This is an analytics exercise, not wagering advice; if you bet, know your local laws and your limits.

How the model works, its calibration, the measured prediction ceiling, and the live ratings table are on The Model. Nothing on this page is wagering advice; if you bet, know your local laws and your limits.