Statball

Today’s Picks

Every upcoming game, priced by a model backtested on 169,939 games it had never seen and rolled forward through all 1,387 games of the 2026 season. The pick, the market’s live contract price, and the edge between them — green means the model rates the pick above what the market charges.

757–630
2026 record, all picks
54.6%
pick accuracy
274–203 (57%)
strong picks
Track record →
every pick scored · real money on the line

Finals today

8–7 on the day
✓Diamondbacks 4, Padres 10finalpicked Padres 60%→✓Rockies 3, Dodgers 4finalpicked Dodgers 64%→✗Angels 13, Rangers 1finalpicked Rangers 59%→✗Brewers 1, Cardinals 5finalpicked Brewers 57%→✗Red Sox 5, White Sox 0finalpicked White Sox 54%→✓Guardians 5, Twins 6finalpicked Twins 56%→✗Phillies 5, Reds 11finalpicked Phillies 50%→✓Royals 2, Mets 6finalpicked Mets 59%→✓Astros 2, Nationals 8finalpicked Nationals 54%→✓Yankees 0, Rays 3finalpicked Rays 58%→✓Mariners 0, Marlins 2finalpicked Marlins 50%→✗Braves 3, Pirates 0finalpicked Pirates 58%→✓Athletics 1, Tigers 6finalpicked Tigers 63%→✗Cubs 9, Orioles 7finalpicked Orioles 51%→✗Blue Jays 10, Giants 0finalpicked Giants 52%→

The pick, the market’s live price, and the gap between them.

Thursday, July 9

Braves at Pirates
Bryce Elder vs Mitch Keller
Pirates 54%†48¢+6.5
Royals at Mets
Michael Wacha vs Sean Manaea
Mets 54%†56¢-2.9
Yankees at Rays
TBD vs Drew Rasmussen
Rays 56%60¢-4.0
Cubs at Orioles
David Peterson vs Trevor Rogers
Orioles 51%†55¢-3.7
Guardians at Twins
Gavin Williams vs Bailey Ober
Twins 50%†47¢+3.9
Red Sox at White Sox
Patrick Sandoval vs Anthony Kay
Red Sox 51%†49¢+2.6
Athletics at Tigers
Jack Perkins vs Framber Valdez
Tigers 59%†56¢+2.4
Mariners at Marlins
Bryce Miller vs Janson Junk
Marlins 55%†43¢+12.1
Phillies at Reds
Jesús Luzardo vs Brady Singer
Phillies 58%†61¢-2.5
Brewers at Cardinals
Logan Henderson vs Andre Pallante
Brewers 54%†54¢-0.7
Angels at Rangers
Reid Detmers vs Nathan Eovaldi
Rangers 54%†57¢-4.0
Diamondbacks at Padres
Merrill Kelly vs Griffin Canning
Padres 57%†54¢+3.7
Rockies at Giants
Ryan Feltner vs TBD
Giants 56%57¢-1.8

Friday, July 10

Phillies at Tigers
Tigers 54%53¢+1.0
Brewers at Pirates
Brewers 51%48¢+2.9
Yankees at Nationals
TBD vs Zack Littell
Nationals 54%43¢+10.5
Royals at Orioles
Orioles 56%57¢-1.7
Cubs at Reds
Shota Imanaga vs Hunter Greene
Reds 52%†53¢-0.1
Mariners at Rays
Rays 55%53¢+1.9
Guardians at Marlins
Parker Messick vs TBD
Marlins 57%53¢+4.6
Red Sox at Mets
Sonny Gray vs Nolan McLean
Red Sox 52%†47¢+5.2
Athletics at White Sox
TBD vs Sean Burke
White Sox 59%59¢+0.6
Astros at Rangers
Hunter Brown vs TBD
Rangers 54%45¢+9.7
Angels at Twins
TBD vs Zebby Matthews
Twins 57%54¢+3.3
Braves at Cardinals
TBD vs Kyle Leahy
Cardinals 54%42¢+11.5
Blue Jays at Padres
TBD vs JP Sears
Padres 54%52¢+2.1
Diamondbacks at Dodgers
TBD vs Shohei Ohtani
Dodgers 62%70¢-8.2
Rockies at Giants
Tanner Gordon vs TBD
Giants 56%61¢-5.3

Saturday, July 11

Angels at Twins
TBD vs Joe Ryan
Twins 57%64¢-6.7
Athletics at White Sox
TBD vs Erick Fedde
White Sox 59%50¢+9.1

Market column shows the live contract price of the model’s pick side, in cents — a 57¢ contract pays $1 if the pick wins, so the price is also the market’s implied probability. A green edge (+2 points or more) means the model rates the pick meaningfully above what the market charges — the spots the strategy buys. Gray means the market wants more than the model thinks it’s worth: no bet. Quotes are mid-market and can be thin far from game time.

Any matchup, any price

Set up a game at current ratings, then enter the moneylines you’re seeing: the vig comes out, the model’s edge appears, and the Kelly stake is computed for you.

Dodgers (home)Brewers
54.0%46.0%

Live 2026 ratings through 2026-07-09 · Elo gap 3 pts, home field included in the fit.

Edge against a price

Enter a moneyline for each side and the model’s probability is compared with the market’s, after the vig is stripped out.

The model prices team strength from results only — it cannot see starting pitchers, injuries, lineups, or weather, all of which sportsbooks price in (Live 2026 ratings through 2026-07-09). This is an analytics exercise, not wagering advice; if you bet, know your local laws and your limits.

How the model works, its calibration, the measured prediction ceiling, and the live ratings table are on The Model. Nothing on this page is wagering advice; if you bet, know your local laws and your limits.