Statball

Today’s Picks

Every upcoming game, priced by a model backtested on 169,939 games it had never seen and rolled forward through all 2,005 games of the 2026 season. The pick, the market’s live contract price, and the edge between them — green means the model rates the pick above what the market charges.

1,096–909
2026 record, all picks
54.7%
pick accuracy
311–225 (58%)
strong picks
Track record →
every pick scored · real money on the line

Finals today

7–8 on the day
✗Twins 4, Athletics 7finalpicked Twins 53%→✗Orioles 8, Cardinals 7finalpicked Cardinals 50%→✓Rangers 4, White Sox 10finalpicked White Sox 57%→✓Dodgers 5, Braves 6finalpicked Braves 53%→✗Brewers 8, Mets 1finalpicked Mets 54%→✓Royals 0, Blue Jays 3finalpicked Blue Jays 62%→✓Astros 3, Yankees 9finalpicked Yankees 58%→✗Rockies 13, Nationals 1finalpicked Nationals 59%→✗Red Sox 0, Marlins 4finalpicked Red Sox 55%→✓Phillies 6, Mariners 0finalpicked Phillies 50%→✓Pirates 0, Padres 3finalpicked Padres 56%→✓Guardians 4, Angels 3finalpicked Guardians 51%→✗Reds 10, Giants 9finalpicked Giants 61%→✗Cubs 0, Diamondbacks 2finalpicked Cubs 51%→✗Rays 3, Tigers 0finalpicked Tigers 52%→

The pick, the market’s live price, and the gap between them.

Thursday, August 27

Rockies at Nationals
Gabriel Hughes vs Jake Irvin
Nationals 57%53¢+4.1
Orioles at Cardinals
Trevor Rogers vs TBD
Cardinals 52%49¢+3.9
Astros at Yankees
Hayden Wesneski vs Gerrit Cole
Yankees 63%†60¢+3.8
Royals at Blue Jays
Noah Cameron vs Spencer Arrighetti
Blue Jays 54%†49¢+5.9
Brewers at Mets
Jacob Misiorowski vs Sean Manaea
Brewers 57%†67¢-9.5
Dodgers at Braves
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Chris Sale
Braves 57%†52¢+5.6
Diamondbacks at Giants
Jose Cabrera vs Landen Roupp
Giants 57%†50¢+7.8

Friday, August 28

Reds at Cubs
Rhett Lowder vs David Peterson
Cubs 64%†66¢-2.4
Dodgers at Tigers
Tarik Skubal vs Drew Anderson
Dodgers 54%†63¢-8.5
Marlins at Nationals
Eury Pérez vs TBD
Nationals 51%44¢+6.5
Royals at Guardians
TBD vs Tanner Bibee
Guardians 56%55¢+1.2
Astros at Mets
TBD vs Christian Scott
Mets 55%50¢+5.3
Padres at Rays
Casey Mize vs Shane McClanahan
Rays 52%†56¢-3.1
Mariners at Blue Jays
TBD vs Dylan Cease
Blue Jays 56%56¢-0.1
Rockies at Braves
Braves 61%70¢-8.2
Red Sox at Yankees
Patrick Sandoval vs Cam Schlittler
Yankees 56%†56¢-0.1
Rangers at Brewers
Cody Bradford vs Logan Henderson
Brewers 62%60¢+2.1
White Sox at Twins
Luis Castillo vs Dean Kremer
White Sox 54%†48¢+6.4
Pirates at Cardinals
Jared Jones vs Quinn Mathews
Cardinals 53%51¢+2.7
Phillies at Angels
Andrew Painter vs Reid Detmers
Angels 55%†48¢+7.0
Orioles at Athletics
Orioles 54%54¢-0.2
Diamondbacks at Giants
TBD vs Blade Tidwell
Diamondbacks 50%52¢-1.2

Saturday, August 29

Red Sox at Yankees
Jake Bennett vs TBD
Yankees 52%53¢-1.5
Dodgers at Tigers
Blake Snell vs Keider Montero
Dodgers 53%†60¢-6.4
White Sox at Twins
Erick Fedde vs Bailey Ober
Twins 52%†54¢-1.8
Pirates at Cardinals
Cardinals 53%55¢-1.3
Reds at Cubs
Andrew Abbott vs Kevin Gausman
Cubs 66%†61¢+5.3
Mariners at Blue Jays
Blue Jays 56%49¢+7.9
Diamondbacks at Giants
Merrill Kelly vs TBD
Diamondbacks 50%50¢+0.3
Marlins at Nationals
Sandy Alcantara vs TBD
Nationals 51%50¢+0.5

Market column shows the live contract price of the model’s pick side, in cents — a 57¢ contract pays $1 if the pick wins, so the price is also the market’s implied probability. A green edge (+2 points or more) means the model rates the pick meaningfully above what the market charges — the spots the strategy buys. Gray means the market wants more than the model thinks it’s worth: no bet. Quotes are mid-market and can be thin far from game time.

Any matchup, any price

Set up a game at current ratings, then enter the moneylines you’re seeing: the vig comes out, the model’s edge appears, and the Kelly stake is computed for you.

Red Sox (home)Brewers
54.5%45.5%

Live 2026 ratings through 2026-08-27 · Elo gap 9 pts, home field included in the fit.

Edge against a price

Enter a moneyline for each side and the model’s probability is compared with the market’s, after the vig is stripped out.

The model prices team strength from results only — it cannot see starting pitchers, injuries, lineups, or weather, all of which sportsbooks price in (Live 2026 ratings through 2026-08-27). This is an analytics exercise, not wagering advice; if you bet, know your local laws and your limits.

How the model works, its calibration, the measured prediction ceiling, and the live ratings table are on The Model. Nothing on this page is wagering advice; if you bet, know your local laws and your limits.