The Sandbox
Pick the teams, set the inning, the outs, the runners, and the score, and watch the win probability move. With teams chosen, the number anchors to the model’s live pregame line — the same math behind Today’s Picks — and hands over to the scoreboard as the game ages.
Away team
Home team
Away
3Homeat bat
2▼ 9th
1 out
Away 73%win probabilityHome 27%
Inning
9
Half
Outs
Runners
Away runs
3
Home runs
2
State math from Statball’s approximate in-game model; team strength from the live model ratings, blended in log-odds and decaying over nine innings. Not an official figure.