Statball

Track Record

Every pick the model has made this season, scored against the final. The predictions are recomputed from the frozen algorithm exactly as they stood pregame — the same numbers the slate showed — so there is nothing to curate and nowhere to hide. † marks pitcher-adjusted calls.

Season 2026, through 2026-08-27 · back to the picks

1,096909
season record
54.7%
pick accuracy
0.2516
Brier score
311225 (58%)
strong picks

$100 at real market prices

The season back-test, on honest terms: simulated bankrolls, real prices. Every paper position is bought at the actual traded Kalshi price at first pitch and settled by the real result — no model prices, no assumptions. The strategies trade only where the model genuinely disagrees with the market, sized quarter-Kelly with a 10% cap, constants chosen before any market data was seen. Coverage: 925 of 2,005 games (46%).

$540.07
strong edges · 663 bets
$360.07
all edges · 803 bets
$111.31
every pick · 925 bets
0.245 vs 0.257
market vs model Brier
$114$315$516MayJunJulAug$540$360$111
strong edges (≥5 pts vs price)all edges (≥2 pts)every pick at any price

In aggregate the market's prices are sharper than the model — which is exactly why the strategies bet only the biggest disagreements instead of every game. Exchange fees are not modeled; thin early markets can move between the priced snapshot and first pitch. Hover the chart for any day’s balances.

The Stake

real moneyday 50

On July 8, 2026 we put $100 of our own cash in a Kalshi account and handed it to the strategy: it buys the published strong signals automatically, and everything below is read from the exchange — we can’t retouch it.

$96.17
account value · -3.8% since the start
$96.17 cash
$0.00 in 0 open positions
50 bets placed
$100 · start$250 · target (+150%)

Strong signals only, limit orders at the ask, quarter-Kelly with hard caps — the full rules, every fill, and the paper benchmark live on The Stake.

By month, by confidence tier

MonthAll picksLeanSolidStrong
August55.7%19615652%10810062%684157%2015
July55.5%20616552%847855%796465%4323
June57.0%22517049%535664%563259%11682
May52.7%22119850%585952%545055%10989
April51.5%20219048%11412358%725353%1614
March60.5%463061%231555%161378%72

Tiers: lean = 50–56% stated confidence, solid = 56–62%, strong = 62%+.

August196156 · 55.7%
July206165 · 55.5%

Thursday, July 16

01
Mets 4, Phillies 158%
June225170 · 57.0%
May221198 · 52.7%
April202190 · 51.5%
March4630 · 60.5%

Wednesday, March 25

01
Yankees 7, Giants 051%