Statball

Track Record

Every pick the model has made this season, scored against the final. The predictions are recomputed from the frozen algorithm exactly as they stood pregame — the same numbers the slate showed — so there is nothing to curate and nowhere to hide. † marks pitcher-adjusted calls.

Season 2026, through 2026-07-09 · back to the picks

757630
season record
54.6%
pick accuracy
0.2542
Brier score
274203 (57%)
strong picks

$100 at real market prices

The season back-test, on honest terms: simulated bankrolls, real prices. Every paper position is bought at the actual traded Kalshi price at first pitch and settled by the real result — no model prices, no assumptions. The strategies trade only where the model genuinely disagrees with the market, sized quarter-Kelly with a 10% cap, constants chosen before any market data was seen. Coverage: 905 of 1,387 games (65%).

$462.99
strong edges · 657 bets
$343.00
all edges · 794 bets
$157.89
every pick · 905 bets
0.244 vs 0.257
market vs model Brier
$98$264$429MayJunJul$463$343$158
strong edges (≥5 pts vs price)all edges (≥2 pts)every pick at any price

In aggregate the market's prices are sharper than the model — which is exactly why the strategies bet only the biggest disagreements instead of every game. Exchange fees are not modeled; thin early markets can move between the priced snapshot and first pitch. Hover the chart for any day’s balances.

The Stake

real moneyday 1

On July 8, 2026 we put $100 of our own cash in a Kalshi account and handed it to the strategy: it buys the published strong signals automatically, and everything below is read from the exchange — we can’t retouch it.

$101.10
account value · +1.1% since the start
$101.10 cash
$0.00 in 0 open positions
1 bet placed
$100 · start$250 · target (+150%)

Strong signals only, limit orders at the ask, quarter-Kelly with hard caps — the full rules, every fill, and the paper benchmark live on The Stake.

By month, by confidence tier

MonthAll picksLeanSolidStrong
July60.0%634246%131569%251161%2516
June57.0%22517049%535663%553259%11782
May52.7%22119850%585952%545055%10989
April51.5%20219048%11412358%725353%1614
March60.5%463061%231555%161378%72

Tiers: lean = 50–56% stated confidence, solid = 56–62%, strong = 62%+.

July6342 · 60.0%
June225170 · 57.0%
May221198 · 52.7%
April202190 · 51.5%
March4630 · 60.5%

Wednesday, March 25

01
Yankees 7, Giants 051%