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San Diego Padres
2
0% — our call
Final
Washington Nationals
4
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityWashington Nationals
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Nationals in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 6 H, 0 ENationals · 9 H, 0 E
100%
Nationals win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Nationals win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Ty France called out on strikes and Jackson Merrill caught stealing 2nd, catcher Keibert Ruiz to second baseman Nasim Nuñez to catcher Keibert Ruiz.
top 9Jackson Merrill singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile.
top 9Xander Bogaerts grounds out, third baseman Curtis Mead to first baseman Andrés Chaparro.
bot 8José Tena strikes out swinging.
bot 8Jacob Young flies out to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
bot 8Daylen Lile flies out to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
bot 8CJ Abrams singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
top 8Manny Machado flies out sharply to center fielder Jacob Young.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
7 on the injured list · bullpen threw 38 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 3-4 · Nick Castellanos 1-2, 1 RBI · Ty France 1-4, 1 RBI
Washington Nationals
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 55 batters faced over the last two days
James Wood 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Luis García Jr. 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · CJ Abrams 2-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.