Statball

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Houston Astros
9
100% — our call
Final
Toronto Blue Jays
7
0% — our call
Houston Astrosgame flow — win probabilityToronto Blue Jays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Jays in control. Red fill: Astros. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Astros · 15 H, 1 EJays · 13 H, 1 E
0%
Jays win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Jays win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 11Daulton Varsho grounds out, second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman Christian Walker.
bot 11Brandon Valenzuela grounds into a force out, first baseman Christian Walker to shortstop Jeremy Peña. Kazuma Okamoto out at 2nd. Brandon Valenzuela to 1st.
bot 11Kazuma Okamoto singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Joey Loperfido. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.97
bot 11Davis Schneider flies out sharply to left fielder Joey Loperfido.
top 11Cam Smith flies out to left fielder Davis Schneider.
top 11Joey Loperfido homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Jose Altuve scores. Yordan Alvarez scores.96
top 11Isaac Paredes strikes out swinging.
top 11Christian Walker strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Houston Astros
10 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 34 batters faced over the last two days
Cam Smith 2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Yainer Diaz 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Jose Altuve 3-6
Toronto Blue Jays
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 12 batters faced over the last two days
Daulton Varsho 3-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Luis Urías 2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Kazuma Okamoto 3-4, 3 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.