Statball

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Pittsburgh Pirates
2
0% — our call
Final
Toronto Blue Jays
6
100% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilityToronto Blue Jays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Jays in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567891133
Pirates · 7 H, 3 EJays · 5 H, 0 E
100%
Jays win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Jays win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Jake Mangum grounds out, shortstop Andrés Giménez to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
top 9Esmerlyn Valdez called out on strikes.
top 9Endy Rodríguez strikes out swinging.
bot 8Daulton Varsho strikes out swinging.
bot 8Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounds out, third baseman Nick Gonzales to first baseman Jared Triolo.
bot 8George Springer hits a ground-rule double (6) on a line drive down the right-field line. Myles Straw scores. Brandon Valenzuela scores.26
bot 8Andrés Giménez strikes out swinging.
bot 8Brandon Valenzuela walks.

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
2 on the injured list · bullpen threw 25 batters faced over the last two days
Brandon Lowe 2-3 · Endy Rodríguez 2-4 · Nick Gonzales 2-4
Toronto Blue Jays
11 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 40 batters faced over the last two days
Ernie Clement 1-3 · Yohendrick Piñango 1-4, 2 RBI · George Springer 1-3, 2 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.