Statball

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Boston Red Sox
4
100% — our call
Final
Tampa Bay Rays
2
0% — our call
Boston Red Soxgame flow — win probabilityTampa Bay Rays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Rays in control. Red fill: Sox. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Sox · 9 H, 0 ERays · 5 H, 1 E
0%
Rays win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Rays win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Chandler Simpson grounds out, second baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to first baseman Nick Sogard.
bot 9Ryan Vilade strikes out swinging. Jonathan Aranda to 3rd. Richie Palacios to 2nd. Ryan Vilade to 1st. Wild pitch by pitcher Erik Miller.
bot 9Junior Caminero walks. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.
bot 9Jonathan Aranda grounds into a force out, third baseman Caleb Durbin to second baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Yandy Díaz out at 2nd. Jonathan Aranda to 1st.4–2
bot 9Yandy Díaz walks. Victor Mesa Jr. to 3rd. Wild pitch by pitcher Erik Miller. Victor Mesa Jr. to 3rd.
bot 9Jorge Mateo strikes out swinging.
bot 9Victor Mesa Jr. singles on a ground ball to third baseman Caleb Durbin.
top 9Wilyer Abreu called out on strikes.

Context the model prices

Boston Red Sox
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Roman Anthony 2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Jahmai Jones 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Caleb Durbin 2-3
Tampa Bay Rays
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Ryan Vilade 1-4 · Jonathan Aranda 1-5, 1 RBI · Nick Fortes 1-1

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.