Statball

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San Diego Padres
4
0% — our call
Final
Tampa Bay Rays
5
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityTampa Bay Rays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Rays in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 6 H, 1 ERays · 7 H, 2 E
100%
Rays win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Rays win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 11Jorge Mateo singles on a line drive to left fielder Samad Taylor. Kenny Piper scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd. Jonny DeLuca to 2nd.4–5
bot 11Jonny DeLuca reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Richie Palacios scores. Kenny Piper to 3rd. Chandler Simpson to 2nd.4–4
bot 11David Morgan intentionally walks Chandler Simpson.
bot 11Liam Hicks singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Richie Palacios to 3rd.
bot 11Junior Caminero strikes out swinging.
top 11Xander Bogaerts strikes out swinging.
top 11Jackson Merrill strikes out swinging.
top 11Ty France out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Manny Machado scores.4–3

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 1-5 · Dustin Harris 1-2 · Samad Taylor 1-1
Tampa Bay Rays
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Junior Caminero 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Jonny DeLuca 1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Jorge Mateo 1-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.