Statball

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San Diego Padres
4
0% — our call
Final
Tampa Bay Rays
9
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityTampa Bay Rays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Rays in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 4 H, 1 ERays · 11 H, 1 E
100%
Rays win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Rays win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Freddy Fermin lines out sharply to center fielder Cedric Mullins.
top 9Austin Hays grounds out, second baseman Jorge Mateo to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
top 9Xander Bogaerts flies out to right fielder Jonny DeLuca.
bot 8Kenny Piper strikes out swinging.
bot 8Junior Caminero grounds into a force out, third baseman Luis Rengifo to second baseman Jake Cronenworth. Jonathan Aranda out at 2nd. Junior Caminero to 1st.
bot 8Jonathan Aranda singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
bot 8Yandy Díaz strikes out swinging.
top 8Jackson Merrill flies out to left fielder Chandler Simpson.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Fernando Tatis Jr. 1-4 · Xander Bogaerts 1-4
Tampa Bay Rays
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Yandy Díaz 2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Cedric Mullins 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Taylor Walls 2-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.