Statball

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San Diego Padres
6
0% — our call
Final
Tampa Bay Rays
7
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityTampa Bay Rays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Rays in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 10 H, 1 ERays · 11 H, 0 E
100%
Rays win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Rays win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Jackson Merrill grounds out, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
top 9Ty France strikes out swinging.
top 9Manny Machado walks.
top 9Jake Cronenworth grounds out, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
bot 8Jorge Mateo strikes out on a foul tip.
bot 8Taylor Walls grounds into a force out, third baseman Manny Machado to second baseman Jake Cronenworth. Cedric Mullins out at 2nd. Taylor Walls to 1st.
bot 8Cedric Mullins walks.
bot 8Richie Palacios flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Ty France 2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Dustin Harris 3-4 · Manny Machado 2-4, 2 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jonathan Aranda 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Junior Caminero 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Taylor Walls 2-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.