Statball

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Boston Red Sox
3
0% — our call
Final
Tampa Bay Rays
4
100% — our call
Boston Red Soxgame flow — win probabilityTampa Bay Rays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Rays in control. Red fill: Sox. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567891231
Sox · 6 H, 1 ERays · 12 H, 0 E
100%
Rays win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Rays win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Mickey Gasper grounds out to first baseman Ryan Vilade.
top 9Masataka Yoshida grounds out to first baseman Ryan Vilade.
top 9Willson Contreras pops out to second baseman Ben Williamson.
bot 8Richie Palacios grounds out, first baseman Willson Contreras to pitcher Garrett Whitlock.
bot 8Nick Fortes singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
bot 8Ben Williamson lines into a double play, center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela to first baseman Willson Contreras. Cedric Mullins out at 1st.
bot 8Cedric Mullins called out on strikes. Cedric Mullins to 1st. Passed ball by catcher Mickey Gasper.
top 8Wilyer Abreu grounds out sharply, shortstop Ben Williamson to first baseman Ryan Vilade.

Context the model prices

Boston Red Sox
10 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 25 batters faced over the last two days
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2-3 · Wilyer Abreu 1-4 · Caleb Durbin 1-3
Tampa Bay Rays
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 34 batters faced over the last two days
Ryan Vilade 3-4 · Nick Fortes 2-3, 1 RBI · Ben Williamson 2-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.