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Miami Marlins
10
100% — our call
Final
Tampa Bay Rays
5
0% — our call
Miami Marlinsgame flow — win probabilityTampa Bay Rays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Rays in control. Red fill: Marlins. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Marlins · 15 H, 4 ERays · 10 H, 1 E
0%
Rays win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Rays win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 10Jonny DeLuca flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
bot 10Cedric Mullins walks.
bot 10Richie Palacios lines out to shortstop Otto Lopez.
bot 10Yandy Díaz grounds out, third baseman Javier Sanoja to first baseman Connor Norby.
bot 10Jonathan Aranda doubles (6) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Junior Caminero scores.105
bot 10Junior Caminero doubles (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Taylor Walls scores. Chandler Simpson scores.104
bot 10Chandler Simpson walks.
top 10Joe Mack grounds out sharply, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.

Context the model prices

Miami Marlins
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 32 batters faced over the last two days
Heriberto Hernández 1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Jakob Marsee 3-4 · Javier Sanoja 2-5, 4 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
5 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 27 batters faced over the last two days
Richie Palacios 2-5 · Junior Caminero 2-5, 2 RBI · Taylor Walls 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.