Statball

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New York Yankees
4
0% — our call
Final
Tampa Bay Rays
5
100% — our call
New York Yankeesgame flow — win probabilityTampa Bay Rays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Rays in control. Red fill: Yankees. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Yankees · 7 H, 0 ERays · 11 H, 0 E
100%
Rays win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Rays win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Ryan McMahon grounds out to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
top 9Mason Englert intentionally walks Austin Wells.
top 9Amed Rosario doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins.
top 9Jazz Chisholm Jr. grounds out, second baseman Ben Williamson to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
top 9Cody Bellinger strikes out swinging.
top 9Aaron Judge homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Ben Rice scores.45
top 9Ben Rice singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Fraley.
bot 8Nick Fortes grounds into a double play, shortstop José Caballero to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Ben Rice. Taylor Walls out at 2nd. Nick Fortes out at 1st.

Context the model prices

New York Yankees
3 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 29 batters faced over the last two days
Aaron Judge 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Ben Rice 2-4 · Amed Rosario 1-1
Tampa Bay Rays
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 38 batters faced over the last two days
Chandler Simpson 3-4, 1 RBI · Taylor Walls 2-3, 1 RBI · Junior Caminero 2-3, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.