Statball

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Chicago Cubs
6
100% — our call
Final
Tampa Bay Rays
2
0% — our call
Chicago Cubsgame flow — win probabilityTampa Bay Rays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Rays in control. Red fill: Cubs. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Cubs · 8 H, 0 ERays · 5 H, 3 E
0%
Rays win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Rays win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Hunter Feduccia strikes out swinging.
bot 9Ben Williamson grounds out, pitcher Hunter Harvey to first baseman Michael Busch.
bot 9Chandler Simpson singles on a line drive to left fielder Michael Conforto.
top 9Nico Hoerner flies out to right fielder Jake Fraley.
top 9Matt Shaw singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Dansby Swanson to 3rd.
top 9Michael Conforto strikes out swinging.
top 9Dansby Swanson grounds into a force out, pitcher Jesse Scholtens to second baseman Ben Williamson. Moisés Ballesteros out at 2nd. Dansby Swanson to 1st.
top 9Moisés Ballesteros singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Fraley.

Context the model prices

Chicago Cubs
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 25 batters faced over the last two days
Nico Hoerner 3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Carson Kelly 2-4 · Michael Conforto 1-4, 2 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 44 batters faced over the last two days
Jonathan Aranda 2-3, 1 RBI · Jake Fraley 1-3, 1 RBI · Chandler Simpson 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.