Statball

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Chicago Cubs
4
0% — our call
Final
Tampa Bay Rays
6
100% — our call
Chicago Cubsgame flow — win probabilityTampa Bay Rays
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Rays in control. Red fill: Cubs. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789211312
Cubs · 4 H, 1 ERays · 9 H, 0 E
100%
Rays win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Rays win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Pete Crow-Armstrong strikes out swinging.
top 9Matt Shaw homers (2) on a line drive to left field.46
top 9Dansby Swanson strikes out swinging.
top 9Michael Busch grounds out, second baseman Ben Williamson to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
bot 8Nick Fortes grounds into a double play, second baseman Nico Hoerner to shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch. Chandler Simpson out at 2nd. Nick Fortes out at 1st.
bot 8Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nico Hoerner.
bot 8Junior Caminero pops out to third baseman Alex Bregman in foul territory.
top 8Carson Kelly grounds out, shortstop Taylor Walls to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.

Context the model prices

Chicago Cubs
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 29 batters faced over the last two days
Matt Shaw 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Ian Happ 1-3 · Carson Kelly 1-4
Tampa Bay Rays
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 26 batters faced over the last two days
Jonathan Aranda 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Junior Caminero 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Cedric Mullins 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.