Statball

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San Diego Padres
6
100% — our call
Final
St. Louis Cardinals
1
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilitySt. Louis Cardinals
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Cardinals in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 14 H, 0 ECardinals · 6 H, 1 E
0%
Cardinals win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Cardinals win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Pedro Pagés grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Ty France.
bot 9Masyn Winn grounds into a double play, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Ty France. Lars Nootbaar out at 2nd. Masyn Winn out at 1st.
bot 9Lars Nootbaar singles on a ground ball to left fielder Samad Taylor.
top 9Ty France strikes out swinging.
top 9Xander Bogaerts reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Masyn Winn. Manny Machado to 3rd. Gavin Sheets to 2nd.
top 9Gavin Sheets walks. Manny Machado to 2nd.
top 9Manny Machado walks.
top 9Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Jackson Merrill homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Samad Taylor scores.61

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
11 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 47 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Fernando Tatis Jr. 3-5, 2 RBI · Xander Bogaerts 2-4, 1 RBI
St. Louis Cardinals
2 on the injured list · bullpen threw 7 batters faced over the last two days
Nathan Church 1-2 · Lars Nootbaar 1-4 · JJ Wetherholt 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.