Statball

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Seattle Mariners
3
100% — our call
Final
St. Louis Cardinals
2
0% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilitySt. Louis Cardinals
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Cardinals in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

12345678911111
Mariners · 8 H, 0 ECardinals · 7 H, 0 E
0%
Cardinals win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Cardinals win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9JJ Wetherholt pops out to third baseman Leo Rivas in foul territory.
bot 9Yohel Pozo grounds out, third baseman Leo Rivas to first baseman Connor Joe.
bot 9Ramón Urías flies out to left fielder Randy Arozarena.
top 9Connor Joe strikes out swinging.
top 9Mitch Garver strikes out on a foul tip.
top 9Rob Refsnyder homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.32
top 9Randy Arozarena flies out to right fielder Jordan Walker.
bot 8Nathan Church flies out sharply to left fielder Randy Arozarena.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
6 on the injured list · bullpen threw 36 batters faced over the last two days
Cal Raleigh 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Rob Refsnyder 1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Cole Young 2-3, 1 RBI
St. Louis Cardinals
2 on the injured list · bullpen threw 43 batters faced over the last two days
Nathan Church 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · JJ Wetherholt 1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Nolan Gorman 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.