Statball

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Seattle Mariners
3
100% — our call
Final
St. Louis Cardinals
2
0% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilitySt. Louis Cardinals
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Cardinals in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567891112
Mariners · 4 H, 0 ECardinals · 8 H, 0 E
0%
Cardinals win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Cardinals win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Ramón Urías strikes out swinging.
bot 9Nathan Church singles on a ground ball to right fielder Rob Refsnyder.
bot 9Masyn Winn strikes out swinging.
bot 9Nolan Gorman lines out sharply to right fielder Rob Refsnyder.
top 9Leo Rivas flies out to center fielder Nathan Church.
top 9Cole Young lines out to center fielder Nathan Church.
top 9Dominic Canzone grounds out, second baseman JJ Wetherholt to first baseman Alec Burleson.
bot 8Jordan Walker grounds into a double play, shortstop J.P. Crawford to second baseman Cole Young to first baseman Josh Naylor. Iván Herrera out at 2nd. Jordan Walker out at 1st.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
6 on the injured list · bullpen threw 11 batters faced over the last two days
Josh Naylor 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Cole Young 1-4, 1 RBI · Randy Arozarena 1-4
St. Louis Cardinals
2 on the injured list · bullpen threw 13 batters faced over the last two days
Nolan Gorman 2-4 · Masyn Winn 2-4, 2 RBI · Nathan Church 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.