Statball

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Boston Red Sox
6
100% — our call
Final
Seattle Mariners
2
0% — our call
Boston Red Soxgame flow — win probabilitySeattle Mariners
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mariners in control. Red fill: Sox. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Sox · 10 H, 0 EMariners · 2 H, 1 E
0%
Mariners win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mariners win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Cole Young pops out to first baseman Willson Contreras.
bot 9Dominic Canzone strikes out swinging.
bot 9Josh Naylor grounds out, pitcher Tommy Kahnle to first baseman Willson Contreras.
bot 9Julio Rodríguez homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Cal Raleigh scores.62
bot 9Cal Raleigh walks.
top 9Carlos Narváez lines out to center fielder Julio Rodríguez.
top 9Marcelo Mayer doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Connor Joe. Caleb Durbin scores.60
top 9Caleb Durbin doubles (14) on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez.

Context the model prices

Boston Red Sox
11 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 18 batters faced over the last two days
Caleb Durbin 3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Marcelo Mayer 2-4, 3 RBI · Willson Contreras 1-4
Seattle Mariners
6 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 27 batters faced over the last two days
Julio Rodríguez 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Josh Naylor 1-4 · Victor Robles 0-2

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.