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Baltimore Orioles
0
0% — our call
Final
Seattle Mariners
3
100% — our call
Baltimore Oriolesgame flow — win probabilitySeattle Mariners
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mariners in control. Red fill: Orioles. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567893
Orioles · 3 H, 1 EMariners · 5 H, 0 E
100%
Mariners win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mariners win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Leody Taveras strikes out swinging.
top 9Samuel Basallo walks.
top 9Pete Alonso grounds out, third baseman J.P. Crawford to first baseman Josh Naylor. Jeremiah Jackson to 2nd.
top 9Adley Rutschman grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Colt Emerson. Gunnar Henderson out at 2nd. Adley Rutschman to 1st.
top 9Gunnar Henderson walks.
bot 8Dominic Canzone grounds out softly, pitcher Rico Garcia to first baseman Pete Alonso.
bot 8Josh Naylor lines out to center fielder Colton Cowser.
bot 8Cal Raleigh called out on strikes.

Context the model prices

Baltimore Orioles
8 on the injured list · bullpen threw 15 batters faced over the last two days
Leody Taveras 1-4 · Jackson Holliday 1-3 · Colton Cowser 1-2
Seattle Mariners
6 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 19 batters faced over the last two days
Josh Naylor 1-4 · Victor Robles 1-3 · Cole Young 1-3, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.