Statball

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Boston Red Sox
5
100% — our call
Final
Seattle Mariners
1
0% — our call
Boston Red Soxgame flow — win probabilitySeattle Mariners
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mariners in control. Red fill: Sox. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789231
Sox · 6 H, 1 EMariners · 2 H, 1 E
0%
Mariners win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mariners win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Cole Young pops out to shortstop Marcelo Mayer.
bot 9Rob Refsnyder lines out to center fielder Nate Eaton.
bot 9Josh Naylor grounds out, second baseman Andruw Monasterio to first baseman Willson Contreras.
top 9Andruw Monasterio lines out to right fielder Dominic Canzone.
top 9Nate Eaton strikes out swinging.
top 9Carlos Narváez strikes out swinging.
bot 8Julio Rodríguez lines out to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
bot 8Cal Raleigh strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Boston Red Sox
11 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 18 batters faced over the last two days
Wilyer Abreu 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Caleb Durbin 2-4, 1 RBI · Anthony Seigler 1-4
Seattle Mariners
6 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 34 batters faced over the last two days
Josh Naylor 1-4, 1 RBI · Cal Raleigh 1-3 · Cole Young 0-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.