Statball

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New York Mets
3
0% — our call
Final
Seattle Mariners
8
100% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilitySeattle Mariners
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mariners in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mets · 5 H, 2 EMariners · 11 H, 0 E
100%
Mariners win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mariners win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Brett Baty pops out softly to third baseman Colt Emerson in foul territory.
top 9Mark Vientos strikes out swinging.
top 9Jared Young strikes out swinging.
bot 8J.P. Crawford caught stealing 3rd base, catcher Luis Torrens to third baseman Brett Baty.
bot 8Luke Raley strikes out swinging.
bot 8Randy Arozarena singles on a ground ball to shortstop Bo Bichette. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.
bot 8Julio Rodríguez flies out to center fielder A.J. Ewing.
bot 8J.P. Crawford walks.

Context the model prices

New York Mets
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 60 batters faced over the last two days
Carson Benge 2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI · Brett Baty 1-4 · Juan Soto 1-4
Seattle Mariners
5 on the injured list · bullpen threw 23 batters faced over the last two days
Jhonny Pereda 2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Patrick Wisdom 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Dominic Canzone 3-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.