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San Diego Padres
8
100% — our call
Final
Seattle Mariners
3
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilitySeattle Mariners
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mariners in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 10 H, 2 EMariners · 1 H, 0 E
0%
Mariners win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mariners win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Mitch Garver strikes out swinging.
bot 9Dominic Canzone strikes out swinging.
bot 9Cole Young strikes out swinging.
top 9Manny Machado lines out to left fielder Randy Arozarena.
top 9Gavin Sheets walks.
top 9Miguel Andujar strikes out swinging.
top 9Fernando Tatis Jr. flies out sharply to left fielder Randy Arozarena.
bot 8Rob Refsnyder grounds out, third baseman Miguel Andujar to first baseman Ty France.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
7 on the injured list · bullpen threw 32 batters faced over the last two days
Gavin Sheets 3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI · Ty France 3-4, 3 RBI · Jackson Merrill 1-4, 1 RBI
Seattle Mariners
9 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 22 batters faced over the last two days
Luke Raley 1-2 · Josh Naylor 0-3, 1 RBI · Cole Young 0-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.