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San Diego Padres
2
100% — our call
Final
Seattle Mariners
0
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilitySeattle Mariners
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mariners in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 9 H, 0 EMariners · 7 H, 1 E
0%
Mariners win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mariners win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Brendan Donovan strikes out swinging.
bot 9Mitch Garver strikes out swinging.
bot 9Cole Young singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.
bot 9Rob Refsnyder strikes out swinging.
bot 9J.P. Crawford walks.
top 9Sung-Mun Song flies out to right fielder Connor Joe.
top 9Ramón Laureano pops out to shortstop J.P. Crawford.
top 9Miguel Andujar lines out to second baseman Cole Young.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
7 on the injured list · bullpen threw 41 batters faced over the last two days
Gavin Sheets 2-3 · Ramón Laureano 2-4 · Miguel Andujar 2-4, 1 RBI
Seattle Mariners
8 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 26 batters faced over the last two days
Cole Young 2-4 · Randy Arozarena 2-4 · Josh Naylor 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.