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Houston Astros
2
0% — our call
Final
Seattle Mariners
6
100% — our call
Houston Astrosgame flow — win probabilitySeattle Mariners
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mariners in control. Red fill: Astros. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567892321
Astros · 7 H, 0 EMariners · 13 H, 0 E
100%
Mariners win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mariners win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Taylor Trammell grounds out, first baseman Josh Naylor to pitcher Cole Wilcox.
top 9Cam Smith flies out sharply to right fielder Luke Raley.
top 9Carlos Correa flies out to right fielder Luke Raley.
top 9Christian Walker walks.
bot 8Cal Raleigh flies out sharply to center fielder Taylor Trammell.
bot 8Brendan Donovan singles on a line drive to left fielder Yordan Alvarez.
bot 8Cole Young grounds out to first baseman Christian Walker.
bot 8Mitch Garver grounds out, third baseman Shay Whitcomb to first baseman Christian Walker.

Context the model prices

Houston Astros
12 on the injured list (3 stars) · bullpen threw 51 batters faced over the last two days
Isaac Paredes 2-4 · Cam Smith 1-4 · Taylor Trammell 1-4
Seattle Mariners
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 32 batters faced over the last two days
Josh Naylor 2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI · Luke Raley 3-4, 1 RBI · Cal Raleigh 2-5

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.