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Houston Astros
1
0% — our call
Final
Seattle Mariners
6
100% — our call
Houston Astrosgame flow — win probabilitySeattle Mariners
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mariners in control. Red fill: Astros. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

12345678911122
Astros · 5 H, 0 EMariners · 8 H, 0 E
100%
Mariners win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mariners win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Isaac Paredes strikes out on a foul tip.
top 9Yordan Alvarez lines into an unassisted double play, first baseman Josh Naylor. Jose Altuve out at 1st.
top 9Jose Altuve singles on a ground ball to second baseman Cole Young.
bot 8Luke Raley grounds out to first baseman Christian Walker.
bot 8Randy Arozarena walks.
bot 8Josh Naylor grounds out, second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman Christian Walker. Julio Rodríguez to 3rd.
bot 8Julio Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Joey Loperfido.
bot 8Cal Raleigh strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Houston Astros
10 on the injured list (3 stars) · bullpen threw 55 batters faced over the last two days
Jose Altuve 3-4 · Yainer Diaz 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Isaac Paredes 1-4
Seattle Mariners
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 44 batters faced over the last two days
Randy Arozarena 3-4, 1 RBI · Luke Raley 3-5, 2 RBI · Julio Rodríguez 2-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.