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Houston Astros
6
0% — our call
Final
Seattle Mariners
9
100% — our call
Houston Astrosgame flow — win probabilitySeattle Mariners
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mariners in control. Red fill: Astros. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Astros · 8 H, 0 EMariners · 9 H, 0 E
100%
Mariners win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mariners win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Jeremy Peña grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Leo Rivas. Joey Loperfido out at 3rd.
top 9Taylor Trammell walks.
top 9Joey Loperfido walks.
top 9Cam Smith flies out sharply to left fielder Randy Arozarena.
top 9Carlos Correa strikes out swinging.
bot 8Dominic Canzone flies out to center fielder Joey Loperfido.
bot 8Cole Young grounds out to first baseman Christian Walker. Luke Raley to 3rd.
bot 8Luke Raley doubles (2) on a fly ball to left fielder Yordan Alvarez.

Context the model prices

Houston Astros
10 on the injured list (3 stars) · bullpen threw 37 batters faced over the last two days
Yordan Alvarez 2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Christian Vázquez 2-3, 3 RBI · Isaac Paredes 1-2
Seattle Mariners
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 18 batters faced over the last two days
Randy Arozarena 2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Josh Naylor 1-4 · Cole Young 1-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.