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San Diego Padres
2
0% — our call
Final
San Francisco Giants
3
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilitySan Francisco Giants
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Giants in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 3 H, 0 EGiants · 6 H, 0 E
100%
Giants win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Giants win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Manny Machado strikes out swinging.
top 9Jackson Merrill grounds out, second baseman Luis Arraez to first baseman Rafael Devers.
top 9Fernando Tatis Jr. strikes out swinging.
top 9Ramón Laureano homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.23
bot 8Willy Adames strikes out swinging.
bot 8Rafael Devers walks.
bot 8Heliot Ramos triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
bot 8Luis Arraez grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Gavin Sheets.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
6 on the injured list · bullpen threw 25 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Ramón Laureano 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Freddy Fermin 0-3
San Francisco Giants
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 24 batters faced over the last two days
Casey Schmitt 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Luis Arraez 2-3 · Heliot Ramos 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.