Statball

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Miami Marlins
2
0% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
8
100% — our call
Miami Marlinsgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Marlins. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Marlins · 10 H, 1 EPadres · 12 H, 0 E
100%
Padres win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Kyle Stowers grounds into a double play, first baseman Ty France to shortstop Xander Bogaerts to pitcher Griffin Canning. Agustín Ramírez out at 2nd. Kyle Stowers out at 1st.
top 9Agustín Ramírez singles on a ground ball to second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. Xavier Edwards to 2nd.
top 9Brian Navarreto strikes out swinging.
top 9Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr., deflected by pitcher Griffin Canning.
bot 8Manny Machado strikes out swinging.
bot 8Fernando Tatis Jr. walks. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd. Samad Taylor to 2nd.
bot 8Ethan Salas flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
bot 8Samad Taylor singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.2–8

Context the model prices

Miami Marlins
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Agustín Ramírez 3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Javier Sanoja 2-4, 1 RBI · Otto Lopez 2-4
San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Ty France 2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Jackson Merrill 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Dustin Harris 2-5, 2 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.