Statball

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Pittsburgh Pirates
0
0% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
3
100% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Pirates · 5 H, 1 EPadres · 7 H, 0 E
100%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Spencer Horwitz pops out softly to shortstop Xander Bogaerts.
top 9Jared Triolo grounds out to first baseman Ty France.
top 9Rafael Flores Jr. lines out to left fielder Jase Bowen.
bot 8Jase Bowen flies out to center fielder Oneil Cruz.
bot 8Jackson Merrill walks. Manny Machado to 3rd. Ty France to 2nd.
bot 8Ty France walks. Manny Machado to 2nd.
bot 8Manny Machado singles on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Jake Cronenworth out at home on the throw, center fielder Oneil Cruz to catcher Rafael Flores Jr.
bot 8Jake Cronenworth doubles (10) on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Freddy Fermin scores.03

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Spencer Horwitz 2-5 · Bryan Reynolds 1-4 · Jared Triolo 1-2
San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 2-3, 1 RBI · Luis Rengifo 1-3, 1 RBI · Freddy Fermin 1-2

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.