Statball

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New York Yankees
5
100% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
1
0% — our call
New York Yankeesgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Yankees. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789411
Yankees · 9 H, 1 EPadres · 3 H, 1 E
0%
Padres win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Samad Taylor strikes out swinging.
bot 9Austin Hays singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Spencer Jones.
bot 9Luis Campusano strikes out swinging.
top 9José Caballero pops out to second baseman Jake Cronenworth.
top 9Spencer Jones grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Ty France.
top 9George Lombard Jr. grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Ty France.
bot 8Jackson Merrill grounds out to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
bot 8Manny Machado grounds out to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.

Context the model prices

New York Yankees
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Ben Rice 3-3 · Spencer Jones 2-4, 1 RBI · Heliot Ramos 1-2
San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Manny Machado 1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Austin Hays 1-1 · Xander Bogaerts 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.