Statball

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Pittsburgh Pirates
3
100% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
2
0% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Pirates · 9 H, 0 EPadres · 7 H, 0 E
0%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 12Luis Campusano strikes out swinging.
bot 12Austin Hays strikes out swinging.
top 12Oneil Cruz strikes out swinging.
top 12Bryan Reynolds lines out to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
top 12Jake Mangum ground bunts into a force out, pitcher Jeremiah Estrada to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Nick Gonzales out at 2nd. Jake Mangum to 1st.
top 12Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Jared Triolo scores.32
bot 11Xander Bogaerts lines out to center fielder Oneil Cruz.
bot 11Jackson Merrill strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Esmerlyn Valdez 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Jared Triolo 2-4 · Nick Gonzales 2-5, 1 RBI
San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Freddy Fermin 2-2 · Jake Cronenworth 2-5, 1 RBI · Dustin Harris 1-5

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.