Statball

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Arizona Diamondbacks
1
0% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
4
100% — our call
Arizona Diamondbacksgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Diamondbacks. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Diamondbacks · 5 H, 1 EPadres · 6 H, 1 E
100%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Nolan Arenado called out on strikes.
top 9Lourdes Gurriel Jr. strikes out swinging.
top 9Gabriel Moreno grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Jake Cronenworth.
bot 8Gavin Sheets grounds into a double play, third baseman Nolan Arenado to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Pavin Smith. Manny Machado out at 2nd. Gavin Sheets out at 1st.
bot 8Manny Machado reaches on a fielding error by center fielder Tim Tawa.
bot 8Xander Bogaerts grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Pavin Smith.
top 8Corbin Carroll flies out sharply to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
top 8Geraldo Perdomo flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.

Context the model prices

Arizona Diamondbacks
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Gabriel Moreno 2-4 · Ketel Marte 1-3 · Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 1-2
San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jake Cronenworth 1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Luis Campusano 2-3 · Jackson Merrill 1-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.