Statball

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Cincinnati Reds
2
0% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
6
100% — our call
Cincinnati Redsgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Reds. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Reds · 9 H, 1 EPadres · 9 H, 0 E
100%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9JJ Bleday strikes out swinging.
top 9Edwin Arroyo strikes out swinging.
bot 8Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds out, second baseman Edwin Arroyo to first baseman Sal Stewart.
bot 8Freddy Fermin singles on a line drive to center fielder Blake Dunn. Samad Taylor scores.26
bot 8Samad Taylor singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jase Bowen scores.25
bot 8Jase Bowen singles on a fly ball to center fielder Blake Dunn. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd.
bot 8Gavin Sheets flies out to center fielder Blake Dunn.
bot 8Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday.

Context the model prices

Cincinnati Reds
8 on the injured list · bullpen threw 38 batters faced over the last two days
Matt McLain 2-3 · Sal Stewart 1-3, 1 RBI · Noelvi Marte 1-4
San Diego Padres
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 38 batters faced over the last two days
Freddy Fermin 2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Xander Bogaerts 2-4 · Jase Bowen 2-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.