Statball

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New York Mets
7
100% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
3
0% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mets · 13 H, 1 EPadres · 7 H, 0 E
0%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Fernando Tatis Jr. strikes out swinging.
bot 9Freddy Fermin doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. Samad Taylor scores.73
bot 9Samad Taylor walks.
bot 9Jase Bowen strikes out swinging.
bot 9Bryce Johnson pops out to shortstop Bo Bichette.
top 9MJ Melendez pops out to second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr.
top 9Brett Baty grounds into a force out, third baseman Manny Machado to catcher Freddy Fermin. Jared Young out at home. A.J. Ewing to 3rd. Marcus Semien to 2nd. Brett Baty to 1st.
top 9Marcus Semien singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jase Bowen. Jared Young to 3rd. A.J. Ewing to 2nd.

Context the model prices

New York Mets
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 19 batters faced over the last two days
Carson Benge 5-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Marcus Semien 2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI · MJ Melendez 1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
San Diego Padres
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 27 batters faced over the last two days
Freddy Fermin 2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Jackson Merrill 1-3 · Samad Taylor 1-2

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.