Statball

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New York Mets
2
0% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
3
100% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mets · 6 H, 0 EPadres · 5 H, 0 E
100%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Mark Vientos strikes out swinging.
top 9A.J. Ewing walks.
top 9Marcus Semien pops out to first baseman Ty France in foul territory.
top 9Jared Young flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
bot 8Manny Machado grounds out, pitcher Austin Warren to first baseman Jared Young.
bot 8Ty France strikes out swinging.
bot 8Jackson Merrill flies out sharply to center fielder A.J. Ewing.
top 8Juan Soto lines into a double play, second baseman Sung-Mun Song to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Carson Benge out at 2nd.

Context the model prices

New York Mets
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 19 batters faced over the last two days
Marcus Semien 2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Bo Bichette 1-4 · Brett Baty 1-3, 1 RBI
San Diego Padres
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 27 batters faced over the last two days
Freddy Fermin 1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Sung-Mun Song 2-2 · Fernando Tatis Jr. 2-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.