Statball

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St. Louis Cardinals
2
0% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
4
100% — our call
St. Louis Cardinalsgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Cardinals. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Cardinals · 7 H, 1 EPadres · 5 H, 0 E
100%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9JJ Wetherholt called out on strikes.
top 9Yohel Pozo strikes out swinging. Nolan Gorman to 3rd. Nathan Church to 2nd. Yohel Pozo to 1st. Wild pitch by pitcher Mason Miller.
top 9Thomas Saggese strikes out swinging.
top 9Nathan Church walks. Nolan Gorman to 2nd.
top 9Masyn Winn strikes out swinging.
bot 8Xander Bogaerts grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson.
bot 8Gavin Sheets grounds out to first baseman Alec Burleson.
bot 8Manny Machado homers (6) on a line drive to left center field.24

Context the model prices

St. Louis Cardinals
1 on the injured list · bullpen threw 18 batters faced over the last two days
Nathan Church 2-3, 1 RBI · Iván Herrera 2-4, 1 RBI · Nolan Gorman 1-3
San Diego Padres
6 on the injured list · bullpen threw 32 batters faced over the last two days
Manny Machado 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Ty France 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Freddy Fermin 2-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.