Statball

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Seattle Mariners
2
0% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
5
100% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789241
Mariners · 7 H, 1 EPadres · 10 H, 0 E
100%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Mitch Garver called out on strikes.
bot 8Ramón Laureano grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Cole Young. Jake Cronenworth out at 2nd.
bot 8Jake Cronenworth singles on a ground ball to third baseman Brendan Donovan.
bot 8Luis Campusano flies out to center fielder Julio Rodríguez.
bot 8Miguel Andujar grounds out, pitcher Cooper Criswell to second baseman Cole Young to first baseman Josh Naylor.
top 8Connor Joe lines out sharply to left fielder Ramón Laureano.
top 8Randy Arozarena singles on a ground ball to third baseman Manny Machado. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.
top 8Josh Naylor flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 26 batters faced over the last two days
Cal Raleigh 2-4, 1 RBI · Brendan Donovan 2-3 · Cole Young 1-4
San Diego Padres
7 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 39 batters faced over the last two days
Manny Machado 2-4, 1 RBI · Miguel Andujar 2-4 · Luis Campusano 1-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.