Statball

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Seattle Mariners
6
0% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
7
100% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mariners · 10 H, 0 EPadres · 10 H, 0 E
100%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Jackson Merrill doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Luis Campusano scores. Ramón Laureano scores.67
bot 9Ramón Laureano singles on a fly ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Ty France scores. Luis Campusano to 2nd.65
bot 9Luis Campusano singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Gavin Sheets scores. Ty France to 3rd.64
bot 9Fernando Tatis Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Luke Raley. Manny Machado scores.63
bot 9Ty France singles on a ground ball to pitcher Andrés Muñoz.
bot 9Nick Castellanos strikes out swinging.
bot 9Gavin Sheets doubles (7) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Manny Machado to 3rd.
bot 9Manny Machado walks.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 21 batters faced over the last two days
Luke Raley 4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Randy Arozarena 2-4 · Dominic Canzone 1-4, 2 RBI
San Diego Padres
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 32 batters faced over the last two days
Xander Bogaerts 2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Jackson Merrill 2-5, 2 RBI · Gavin Sheets 2-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.