Statball

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Seattle Mariners
1
0% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
4
100% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789131
Mariners · 4 H, 0 EPadres · 11 H, 0 E
100%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9J.P. Crawford grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Ty France.
top 9Luke Raley strikes out swinging.
top 9Randy Arozarena flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
bot 8Luis Campusano called out on strikes.
bot 8Ty France singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Gavin Sheets to 2nd.
bot 8Gavin Sheets grounds into a force out, second baseman Cole Young to shortstop J.P. Crawford. Xander Bogaerts out at 2nd. Gavin Sheets to 1st.
bot 8Xander Bogaerts singles on a fly ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Jackson Merrill scores.14
bot 8Manny Machado flies out to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 11 batters faced over the last two days
Randy Arozarena 2-4 · Josh Naylor 1-4 · Luke Raley 1-3
San Diego Padres
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 9 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 3-4 · Xander Bogaerts 3-4, 3 RBI · Ramón Laureano 2-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.