Statball

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San Francisco Giants
3
100% — our call
Final
San Diego Padres
2
0% — our call
San Francisco Giantsgame flow — win probabilitySan Diego Padres
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Padres in control. Red fill: Giants. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Giants · 6 H, 0 EPadres · 3 H, 0 E
0%
Padres win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Padres win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Xander Bogaerts grounds out, shortstop Willy Adames to first baseman Casey Schmitt.
bot 9Jackson Merrill homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Jake Cronenworth scores.32
bot 9Manny Machado grounds out to first baseman Casey Schmitt. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.
bot 9Fernando Tatis Jr. strikes out on a foul tip.
bot 9Jake Cronenworth walks.
top 9Casey Schmitt pops out to shortstop Xander Bogaerts.
top 9Patrick Bailey strikes out swinging.
top 9Harrison Bader grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Miguel Andujar.

Context the model prices

San Francisco Giants
4 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 11 batters faced over the last two days
Harrison Bader 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Casey Schmitt 2-3, 1 RBI · Patrick Bailey 1-4, 1 RBI
San Diego Padres
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 17 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Fernando Tatis Jr. 1-3 · Xander Bogaerts 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.