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Kansas City Royals
3
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
4
100% — our call
Kansas City Royalsgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Royals. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Royals · 9 H, 1 EPirates · 8 H, 1 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Isaac Collins flies out to right fielder Jake Mangum.
top 9Luke Maile doubles (2) on a fly ball to right fielder Jake Mangum. Luke Maile to 3rd. Luke Maile advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by right fielder Jake Mangum.
top 9John Rave strikes out swinging.
top 9Nick Loftin grounds out, shortstop Konnor Griffin to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
bot 8Brandon Lowe grounds out softly, pitcher Anthony Gose to first baseman Salvador Perez.
bot 8Konnor Griffin doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder John Rave.
bot 8Jake Mangum grounds out, first baseman Salvador Perez to pitcher Nate Pearson.
bot 8Rafael Flores Jr. homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Ronny Simon scores.3–4

Context the model prices

Kansas City Royals
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Vinnie Pasquantino 1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Salvador Perez 2-4, 1 RBI · Jac Caglianone 2-3
Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Rafael Flores Jr. 2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Oneil Cruz 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Spencer Horwitz 1-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.