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Kansas City Royals
5
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
6
100% — our call
Kansas City Royalsgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Royals. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Royals · 13 H, 1 EPirates · 9 H, 1 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Nick Loftin pops out softly to catcher Henry Davis in foul territory.
top 9Maikel Garcia flies out to right fielder Jake Mangum.
top 9Salvador Perez strikes out swinging.
bot 8Ronny Simon strikes out swinging.
bot 8Ryan O'Hearn pops out to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.
bot 8Nick Gonzales grounds out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
bot 8Brandon Lowe homers (33) on a fly ball to right center field. Jared Triolo scores.5–6
bot 8Rafael Flores Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel.

Context the model prices

Kansas City Royals
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Nick Loftin 4-5, 1 RBI · Carter Jensen 1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Bobby Witt Jr. 3-5
Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Brandon Lowe 2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Ronny Simon 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Jake Mangum 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.