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Detroit Tigers
1
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
4
100% — our call
Detroit Tigersgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Tigers. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789131
Tigers · 5 H, 0 EPirates · 6 H, 1 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Hao-Yu Lee grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
top 9Eduardo Valencia strikes out swinging.
top 9Dillon Dingler strikes out swinging.
top 9Kevin McGonigle reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Brandon Lowe.
bot 8Esmerlyn Valdez grounds into a force out, shortstop Javier Báez to second baseman Gleyber Torres. Bryan Reynolds out at 2nd.
bot 8Bryan Reynolds singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brett Callahan. Jared Triolo scores.14
bot 8Brandon Lowe grounds into a double play, shortstop Javier Báez to first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Jared Triolo to 3rd. Spencer Horwitz out at 2nd. Brandon Lowe out at 1st.
bot 8Spencer Horwitz hit by pitch. Jared Triolo to 2nd.

Context the model prices

Detroit Tigers
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Brett Callahan 2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Kevin McGonigle 1-4 · Gleyber Torres 1-4
Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Oneil Cruz 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Spencer Horwitz 1-3, 1 RBI · Bryan Reynolds 1-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.