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Detroit Tigers
8
100% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
5
0% — our call
Detroit Tigersgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Tigers. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789221314
Tigers · 14 H, 2 EPirates · 6 H, 1 E
0%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Bryan Reynolds called out on strikes.
bot 9Jacob Gonzalez grounds out, second baseman Hao-Yu Lee to first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
top 9Dillon Dingler pops out to second baseman Nick Gonzales.
top 9Kevin McGonigle grounds into a double play, shortstop Jacob Gonzalez to first baseman Rafael Flores Jr. Javier Báez to 3rd. Gleyber Torres out at 2nd. Kevin McGonigle out at 1st.
top 9Gleyber Torres walks. Javier Báez to 2nd.
top 9Javier Báez hit by pitch.
bot 8Henry Davis strikes out swinging.
bot 8Nick Yorke strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Detroit Tigers
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Kevin McGonigle 2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Zach McKinstry 3-4, 1 RBI · Hao-Yu Lee 3-3, 2 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Nick Yorke 2-4, 3 RBI · Brandon Lowe 2-4 · Henry Davis 1-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.