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New York Mets
11
100% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
1
0% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mets · 15 H, 0 EPirates · 4 H, 1 E
0%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Esmerlyn Valdez strikes out swinging.
bot 9Nick Gonzales lines out sharply to center fielder Luis Robert Jr.
bot 9Jhostynxon Garcia strikes out swinging.
top 9Luis Robert Jr. flies out to right fielder Ronny Simon.
top 9Carson Benge lines out to left fielder Jhostynxon Garcia.
top 9Bo Bichette singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Jake Mangum. Francisco Lindor to 2nd.
top 9Francisco Lindor singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronny Simon.
top 9A.J. Ewing grounds out, second baseman Nick Gonzales to first baseman Esmerlyn Valdez.

Context the model prices

New York Mets
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Bo Bichette 5-5, 3 RBI · Luis Robert Jr. 2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI · Francisco Alvarez 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jake Mangum 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Ronny Simon 1-4 · Bryan Reynolds 1-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.