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Cincinnati Reds
4
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
9
100% — our call
Cincinnati Redsgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Reds. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Reds · 8 H, 1 EPirates · 11 H, 1 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Sal Stewart grounds into a force out, shortstop Konnor Griffin to second baseman Brandon Lowe. Elly De La Cruz out at 2nd.
top 9Elly De La Cruz walks.
top 9Edwin Arroyo strikes out swinging.
top 9TJ Friedl flies out to right fielder Tyler Callihan.
top 9Tyler Stephenson walks.
bot 8Tyler Callihan strikes out swinging.
bot 8Esmerlyn Valdez homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.49
bot 8Ryan O'Hearn homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales scores.48

Context the model prices

Cincinnati Reds
7 on the injured list · bullpen threw 29 batters faced over the last two days
Sal Stewart 2-5 · Tyler Stephenson 2-3, 1 RBI · Edwin Arroyo 2-4, 1 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 36 batters faced over the last two days
Ryan O'Hearn 3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI · Esmerlyn Valdez 3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Tyler Callihan 2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.