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Seattle Mariners
3
100% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
2
0% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mariners · 8 H, 2 EPirates · 10 H, 1 E
0%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Brandon Lowe strikes out swinging.
bot 9Spencer Horwitz strikes out swinging.
bot 9Tyler Callihan strikes out swinging.
top 9J.P. Crawford pops out to shortstop Jared Triolo.
top 9Colt Emerson strikes out on a foul tip.
top 9Victor Robles pops out to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
bot 8Jake Mangum flies out to center fielder Julio Rodríguez.
bot 8Endy Rodríguez strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
5 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 10 batters faced over the last two days
Cole Young 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Cal Raleigh 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Josh Naylor 2-4
Pittsburgh Pirates
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 26 batters faced over the last two days
Brandon Lowe 2-5 · Nick Gonzales 2-4 · Spencer Horwitz 1-5

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.